AT&T Could Lose 6 Million Subscribers If Verizon Gets iPhone

Davenport & Company analyst Drake Johnstone believes AT&T could lose up to 6 million subscribers if Verizon gets the iPhone.

“Over the past several years, AT&T indicated that 40 percent of its new iPhone customers came from other carriers,” Johnstone theorized. “We estimate that AT&T has 15 million iPhone customers (as of Q-1 10) and believe that AT&T could lose as many as 6 million, or 40 percent, of its iPhone customers when Verizon begins selling the iPhone in 2011. We are reducing AT&T’s 2011 wireless subscriber additions from 6 million to 2 million (most of these new additions may be lower value connected devices such as eReaders instead of higher value long- term wireless customers), since we believe that Verizon could obtain Apple’s approval to sell and provide wireless service for the iPhone as early as mid-2011.”

Digital Daily notes that there are two things that could prevent this from happening.

1) Early Termination Fees - Its very interesting that AT&T
nearly doubled their ETFs just days ago.
2) Family Talk/Business Plans - Digital Daily says 80% of AT&T's customers are on these plans which would make it difficult to switch.

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